Every fixture below is run through our Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, then compared against the live bookmaker price. Where our probability beats the price, that is value. Where it does not, we say so and move on.
Each team's goals scored and conceded, split by home and away, taken from season data.
Attack strength against opposition defence produces an expected goals figure for each side.
A full scoreline distribution is built, giving a probability for every market on the fixture.
The bookmaker's margin is stripped out and their true price compared with ours.
Fixtures where the model finds no value are still shown, marked as avoided. That is the honest output of the process, not an omission.
Running the model on today's fixtures…
A bookmaker's odds contain a built-in margin. Strip that out and you get the price they genuinely believe in. Edge is the gap between our probability and theirs, expressed as expected profit per ₦100 staked.
An edge of +8% means that, if our probability is accurate, ₦100 staked repeatedly on that position returns ₦108 on average. It does not mean the selection wins. Over a small number of bets, variance dominates entirely.
This is also why we publish staking guidance as a fraction of bankroll rather than a flat "stake big on this one". Our staking guide covers that in full.